US crude flirts with close of under $40 a barrel

Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Sunday that holding an emergency OPEC meeting may be “effective” in stabilizing the oil price, Iran’s oil ministry news agency Shana reported. The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. rose for the seventh time in eight weeks, data showed Friday.



“These jitters over China – in case you assume they’re risky for the US fairness market, they’re even worse for the worldwide oil market“, stated John Killduff of Again Capital. That should bolster oil prices because a falling greenback means more dollars are needed to buy the same amount of oil.

Reuters analyst Wang Tao said that US crude could drop to $37.05 per barrel, based on a Fibonacci analysis, and that Brent could target $40.29.

Crude oil, in which China is the world’s second-biggest importer, fell to its lowest price in more than six years, after more negative news on the supply front.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October delivery tumbled to $38.69, striking a level last seen in February 2009.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 22 raw materials, sank to the lowest level in 16 years as China’s economic slowdown exacerbates surpluses from oil to metals. Saudi Arabia and Iraq were the group’s top producers in July.

Yet following the spike in their value, open interest in their trading started to fall late last week, and while some traders said this could imply that short-sellers are closing positions and trigger a short-lived price rise, technical indicators remain bearish.

“While there’s been a clear loss of faith, in the oil market and elsewhere, in terms of a swift rebound in China’s economy, that doesn’t mean we’re necessarily looking into the jaws of the abyss in the same way we were in September-October 2008”, Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc in London, said by phone. “Markets are still anxious about the reduced growth pace in this huge country”.

In the U.S., the rig count climbed by 2 to 674 through August 21, according to Baker Hughes, an oilfield-services company.

EIA said global oil stocks are estimated to have grown by 2.3million barrels a day in the first seven months of 2015, the highest level since 1998.

The fall in oil followed an 8.5 percent decline in the Shanghai Composite Index on Monday.

Richard Mallinson, an oil analyst from Energy Aspects told Gulf News over phone that sentiment remains negative and supply response is not yet visible.

Iron ore for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped 4 per cent to 362.50 yuan (HK$439) a tonne, a three-week low.

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