The margin of error was plus or minus 4.8 percent.

The poll also shows that Carson has lots of room to grow.

Will we have a new frontrunner next week? Twenty-seven percent of likely G.O.P. voters said that they would support Trump, and twenty-three per cent said that they would support Carson.

Jeb Bush dropped from second place in a July poll to fifth in the latest and was tied with former technology executive Carly Fiorina at 7 percent.

Bush, who garnered 13 percent of GOP primary voters in the same poll last month, is down to six percent. Eighty-seven percent of poll respondents said that. Trump became the most searched candidate in place of Walker in over 30 counties in the state.

A religious conservative, Carson said he’d prefer the movement change its name to “All black lives matter” -to include the unborn children of black women who have abortions.

That’s the fascinating thing about the Trump/Carson dynamic: They’re both perceived as unusually honest and authentic despite the fact that their personalities are polar opposites. A world-renowned surgeon who was brought up in Detroit by his mother, after his parents divorced, Carson has an inspirational life story to relate.

To put that in perspective for you, Marco Rubio, another guy who always does exceptionally well in this metric, is at a mere 46/25 in NH.

David McIntosh, president of Club for Growth, a group that recently released an ad in Iowa attacking Trump, said, “I think they like his angry style, in your face to Washington“. On the basis of what we’ve seen so far, he may well have the calmness and self-confidence to stand up to Trump’s jibes without being rattled. When he’s lashing Scott Walker or especially Jeb Bush, he’s channeling populist contempt for professional politicians.

Carson, as Cassidy notes, is tracking well among evangelical Christians. It won’t play the same way. That last part shouldn’t be too hard.

“They pretty much need an act of God to move up”, said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, noting that all four are “career politicians” in a year where polls show GOP voters prefer candidates without government experience. The invincible bully isn’t supposed to get wedgied by a girl.