US Stock Futures Drop Again Amid Another Devaluation of Chinese Yuan

US Stock Futures Drop Again Amid Another Devaluation of Chinese Yuan

An adjustment to China’s currency is probably appropriate if the Chinese economy is weaker than authorities there expected, a top Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday in the U.S. central bank’s first public response to the devaluation of the yuan. In the United Kingdom, expectations for the first Bank of England rate increase have shifted to August 2016 from May 2016 in the past week. He did not comment on the timing of interest rate hikes nor update his economic forecasts.



If the yuan weakens by 5 percent as SocGen expects, that is negligible compared with the 15 percent rise that has occurred over the past 12 months. “Clearly what was happening is the Chinese yuan was appreciating along with the U.S. dollar”, Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, said after a speech in Rochester, New York.

It may slightly lower the likelihood of September tightening, though Goldman’s base case remains a December liftoff. This takes precedence over any potential stimulus impact from the intervention.

In its July policy statement, the Fed stressed the need to be “reasonably confident” that inflation is moving back toward its 2 percent target in the medium-term.

To my ears, that sounds like a budding excuse to prolong the reign of the Fed’s 0 percent interest rate policy through the end of 2015 and into early 2016.

China’s currency fell for a second day on Wednesday as pressure grew within the country’s government to press its central bank to devalue the yuan yet more.

Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale, echoed these sentiments, noting the Fed “wants to engineer a smooth liftoff and will be very sensitive to financial conditions at the time of the September meeting”.

The disinflationary effect of the PBOC’s actions and concerns over the underlying strength of the Chinese economy, together with mixed United Kingdom economic data and a spike in market volatility, may delay the BOE from hiking rates.

Representational image

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