“Too much dollar strength could worsen the inflation outlook and could lead to the Fed not hiking”.
“The market’s looking through the weakness on Friday and normalisation is still coming, and that was good cause for USA dollar to be lifted”, said Sam Tuck, senior FX strategist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.
He is a non-voting member of the committee and is viewed as more hawkish than most, meaning he places more emphasis on raising rates to avoid high inflation than keeping them low to spur job growth. But now some investors are dubbing this the “dazed and confused” market (bring on the Matthew McConaughey jokes).
Meanwhile, the Fed likely will pull the trigger and hike interest rates in December after taking a pass last week, according to economists polled by Reuters who assigned a 60 percent probability of it happening. There were, however, central bank governors in emerging economies calling for the Fed to expedite a rate hike because the uncertainty and expectations of a hike had hit their currencies and financial markets hard, the paper said.
A higher interest rate under current conditions is also consistent with the way the FOMC has responded to economic conditions and inflation over the last few decades. “It is ratcheting down a little bit, but there is a decent chance that the world is overreacting”, he said.
CNBC report quoted Lockhart, saying that the decision to keep rates unchanged this month was “prudent risk management”, even though, in his own words, the USA economy is “performing solidly”.
Williams wasn’t the only one to modestly break away from Yellen’s cautious tone. In April, the Fed tested its ability to hold a press conference by phone, and this fueled speculation that it was gearing up for a possible October hike. Bullard doesn’t have a vote, but he will next year, and he said he would’ve dissented against the Fed’s decision last week. “I thought it was time to move”.
By 0630 GMT the rand had slipped 0.5 percent to 13.7500 per dollar, sinking to its weakest in two weeks as global factors dominated ahead of a domestic central bank interest rate decision later in the session.
Sometime in the next six months the Fed will raise rates by a modest amount, says Koesterich.
The Fed’s leaders aren’t done talking either.
Regarding the Chair Yellen speech on Thursday , market widely expects the usual neutral/dovish/non-commitment bias.