Details of last month’s deliberations emerged four weeks before the officials will gather for a meeting at which most analysts still expect the Fed to raise its key short-term rate from a record low.
“Most [officials] judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved but they noted that conditions were approaching that point”, according to the minutes of the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting released Wednesday. “A September hike is seen as less likely than it was a week ago…”
Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy Jim Reid said markets were “slightly lost, upset, and confused”, citing the probability of a September hike falling to 38% from 48% 24 hours earlier and 54% at its recent peak on August 7.
Gold has come under heavy pressure this year from expectations that the Fed would raise rates for the first time in almost a decade, lifting the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar.
At the same time, officials remained concerned about low inflation, sluggish wages and a sharp slowdown in China – factors that will help determine whether they raise rates next month. “These developments appear inconsistent with Fed Chair Yellen’s rate rise pre-requisite of “reasonable confidence” that inflation will return to mandate-consistent levels in the coming years”.
The labour market has shown continued progress since the committee meeting, with US firms adding 215,000 jobs in July compared with the year-to-date monthly average of 211,000.
“That’s probably because the inflation numbers are a puzzle. The economy is nearing full employment, productivity has stalled, yet inflation shows no signs of taking off”.
The most active gold contract for December delivery rose $11, or 0.98 percent, to settle at $1,127.90 per ounce on Wednesday, Xinhua reported. “But with commodity prices as low as they are, it could give the Fed pause”, said Alan Rechtschaffen of UBS.
Numbers out today from the Labor Department say consumer prices are moving at a crawl, up only two-tenths of a percent in the previous year, and growing at the slowest monthly pace in three months. Gold benefited last week from uncertainty posed by China’s surprise devaluation of its yuan currency.
On China, Fed officials believed that a big drop in the Chinese stock market would have only limited implications for growth prospects in the world’s second-largest economy. The dollar was down 0.40 percent against the yen at 123.76 yen, and off 0.20 percent against the British pound at $1.5684.
“I’m a bit surprised by the market reacting as much as that”, said Vassili Serebriakov of BNP Paribas.