Fed ‘close’ to hiking rates, US economy near normal – Lockhart

Fed ‘close’ to hiking rates, US economy near normal – Lockhart photo Fed ‘close’ to hiking rates, US economy near normal – Lockhart
Fed ‘close’ to hiking rates, US economy near normal – Lockhart

The U.S. central bank has not raised rates since 2006, but the stability achieved could catalyze a rate change.



“The most advertised and anticipated play” is a Fed rate hike in September, David Kotok, chief executive at money management firm Cumberland Advisors, said Friday after the July jobs report showed that employers added 215,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate held at a almost normal 5.3 percent. Trulia economist Selma Hepp said Friday’s job numbers will probably cause the Fed to postpone raising interest rates in September, which is good news for homebuyers who want to purchase a home before the rates increase.

The Fed was optimistic about its assessment of the labor market saying that they expected unemployment to continue to decline.

“The Fed is very concerned about the strengthening of the U.S. dollar”. This ratio has been dropping over the years as more individuals leave the workforce.

CAD – Canada’s loonie steadied above 11-year lows though it remained on shaky ground and at risk of adding to its losses of almost 10% since May. Taken together these don’t make an clear case for higher interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,095.41 an ounce at 1222 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 40 cents an ounce at $1,094.50. Many economists, and as far as I can tell all Keynesian economists, havent figured this out because their analyses are based on models that treat the economy as if it were an amorphous mass instead of what it is — an extremely complex network comprised of millions of individuals making decisions for their own reasons. Projected interest rates after this point in time are unknown.

“Our major takeaway is that the muted market reaction is because asset markets are treating the higher September lift-off probability as a one-off shift on timing, rather than as an indication that the Fed is going faster and further”, strategist Steven Englander at Citigroup wrote to clients. A healthy economy will have some level of inflation, a rate that is fast enough to reflect a growing economy but not too fast that leads to an economy overheating. According to the most recent Reuters survey, 13 of 19 primary dealers expect the Fed to lift rates next month – but only nine think it will raise rates twice this year, down from 15 out of 20 in the prior survey.

The BoE warned last week that sterling’s strength, with weak energy prices, would keep inflation subdued well into next year, though sterling’s rise would not take away the need for future rate hikes.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of currencies on Monday, climbing back towards near four-month highs in the wake of Friday’s employment data and keeping some pressure on gold.

Here are 5 key factors that could give the Fed pause and consider a delay in the rate “liftoff”.

Both the US Fed and BoE, though, continue to emphasise that when they do start to tighten policy, they expect that it will be at a very slow pace.

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